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Graduate students at Princeton University tell us that by 2017 Facebook will only retain about ONLY 20% of its Active Membership. Will Facebook Fade Away? What would you do if you lost 80% of your friends?
What the heck are they trying to say? How can they make this claim? well they tell us ‘We use epidemiological models to explain user adoption and abandonment of online social networks (OSNs), where adoption is analogous to infection and abandonment is analogous to recovery.”
Everyone clear then?
NO I’m not clear are you?
They went on to state :“We modify the traditional [Susceptible-Infected-Recovered] SIR model of disease spread by incorporating infectious recovery dynamics such that contact between a recovered and infected member of the population is required for recovery. The proposed infectious recovery SIR model (irSIR model) is validated using publicly available Google search query data for ‘MySpace’ as a case study of an OSN that has exhibited both adoption and abandonment phases. The irSIR model is then applied to search query data for ‘Facebook,’ which is just beginning to show the onset of an abandonment phase. Extrapolating the best fit model into the future predicts a rapid decline in Facebook activity in the next few years.”
The processes and models used to predict epidemics work well for the study and prediction of how these things play out, spread and in some cases just fade out. However, Facebook is NOT a sickness right? Facebook is not going to Fade Away? Say it with me now…” NO! or just click Like icon-thumbs-o-up
Facebook now with a Billion plus monthly users is the biggest of any of the social networks. Then again there was AOL, Alta Vista and MySpace! Many thought these would never suffer an epidemiological demise. So what should you do? I think you know, just keep moving forward with Facebook or Twitter or YouTube or what ever informs you, entertains you, educates you, (okay that might be a bit strong for Facebook) and allow you to connect with the Places, People and Friends important to you.
Ah, those college guys!